惠譽料煤炭價格未來3年繼續下跌 因結構性需求轉變
評級機構惠譽指,因結構性需求轉變,料煤炭價格自去年起的跌勢將延續至未來3年,並會令一些中國以外的亞洲煤炭生產商的評級承壓,但預計部分公司的信用狀況會更有韌性。
該行料動力煤價格將於今年下半年進一步下跌,需求前景相對疲弱,尤其是主要的進口市場,包括中國及印度的存貨水平仍較高。又預期隨着向低碳能源轉型所帶來的需求阻力,價格在未來3年將趨於下跌,尤其是在中國。
另外,焦煤價格於未來3年亦保持疲弱,反映了中國建築行業持續疲弱下,鋼鐵需求前景低迷,但部分可被印度和東南亞高爐的新需求所抵消。此外,美國貿易戰帶來的的全球增長挑戰亦提高了熱煤和焦煤價格前景的風險。
機構指,MONGOL MINING(00975.HK)的焦煤較依舊中國市場,其較受經濟環境及內地監管影響,是其評級較弱的關鍵因素。不過,公司在今年3月完成了一次重大再融資操作,機構認爲在其當前評級水平上仍有一定緩衝空間,至少在短期內能夠抵禦價格下行的壓力。
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