《大行》花旗升摩通(JPM.US)目標價至275美元 評級「中性」
花旗研究報告指出,展望摩通(JPM.US)第二季度,預計投資者關注重點將集中在淨利息收入(NII)上,因為市場預期已高於摩通在5月投資者日暗示上調後的全年淨利息收入指引。花旗指,摩通管理層已提供明確的支出指引,花旗估計與市場預期都與摩通指引一致。
花旗指,摩通目前的交易價格為有形賬面價值的2.8倍,以及花旗對其預測2026年市盈率15倍,認為這代表摩通盈利正常化。假設花旗預估的19%正常化有形資本權益回報率(ROTCE,相較管理層預估17%),花旗相信市場隱含的股本成本(CoE)為9%,這留給投資者的空間不多。花旗基於折現剩餘收益模型,將摩通目標價從250美元上調至275美元,因為花旗在剩餘收益模型中將股本成本假設下調至9.4%(與當前選擇權市場的隱含波動率一致),評級「中性」。
花旗對摩通2025年第二季至2026年的預測略低於市場普遍預期,反映出對信貸的看法更為謹慎。花旗預測,到2026年,預期摩通淨利息收入將因淨息差的改善而上漲,這主要得益於更高的貸款收益率和更有利的存款重新定價。
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