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《大行》里昂:市場對HIBOR暫時下降過於樂觀 料將很快回升
里昂表示,正如預期,由於經濟疲弱,今年上半年住宅物業價格、零售銷售和寫子樓租金持續下降。然而,受益於低HIBOR和對美國降息預期的改善,香港地產股尤其是發展商近期表現良好。該行維持預測住宅物業將在今年下半年因降息而觸底,但認為市場對HIBOR暫時下降過於樂觀,預計HIBOR將很快回升。 里昂預期香港金管局將買入港元並從市場抽走流動性,這將推高HIBOR及按揭利率,延遲住宅物業投資需求的回暖。因此,里昂短期內對發展商持謹慎態度,相較於寫子樓業主,該行更看好零售業主作為未來潛在降息的受益者。
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