摩通料美貿易政策將重燃通脹 下半年衰退機會率為四成
外媒報道,摩根大通分析師發表年中展望,預期美國貿易政策將令全球經濟增長放緩並令美國通脹重燃,下半年經濟衰退機會率為40%。
報告預計美國今年經濟增長1.3%,低於年初2%預測,關稅引發滯脹驅使該行下調經濟增長展望,該行仍認為衰退風險高企。該行亦看淡美元,基於美國經濟增長對比有支持經濟政策的其他國家放緩,包括新興市場,導致有關國家貨幣獲提振。
該行預計外國投資者、美聯儲及商業銀行持有美債比例下降,基於美債市場規模擴大,投資者將要求更高期限溢價,令債息上升40至50點子,縱使不會如年初般急升。基於關稅及經濟堅韌帶來的黏性通脹,預期美聯儲今年12月開始減息,至明年春季累計減息1厘。
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