《大行》高盛微降蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至22.8元 維持「買入」評級
高盛研究報告指,蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)旗下現代牧業(01117.HK)發盈警,料上半年淨虧損擴大至8億至10億元人民幣(下同),而去年同期為虧損2.07億元,公司解釋是由於原奶價格低迷引致的生物資產虧損,料EBITDA可大致按年持平。
報告指,年初至今乳製品零售需求仍然低迷,上半年縮減供應的速度慢過預期,因每頭乳牛的單位產量仍在上升、政府對奶牛場財政支持,以及飼料費用下降。不過,公司認為行業將於今年下半年見底,料供應縮減將會加速,大部分奶牛場均處於虧損狀態,下半年飼料借貸將減少,以及牛群開始老化。現代牧業料第三季起情況將更穩定,原奶價格亦會反彈。
基於上述情況,該行將蒙牛2025至27年銷售預測下調約2%,經常性淨利潤預測下調約1%,目標價由23港元降至22.8港元,主要因現代牧業的非現金減值虧損;維持「買入」評級,因其在行業下行周期下利潤率仍具韌性,以及具成本效益。
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