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《大行》建銀國際料恆指短期在23,000至24,000點之間維持震盪走勢
建銀國際發表報告指,其香港市場流動性指數在過去一個月轉為負值。支撐該指數的因素包括極低的HIBOR、較低的波動性和走弱的美元指數。拖累該指數的因素包括大幅擴大的SOFR-HIBOR利差(有利於SOFR)以及新興市場資金流動減弱。 報告指,過去一個月港股市場呈現震盪走勢,投資者情緒偏向謹慎,認為主要受以下幾個因素影響:首先,地緣政治衝突持續升級,油價急升令通脹預期隨之升溫,全球市場的避險情緒顯著增強,風險偏好降低。其次,美聯儲最新公布的點陣圖顯示,委員間對於未來降息路徑的分歧顯著擴大,加劇了市場對美國貨幣政策前景的不確定性。第三,港元流動性近期出現邊際弱化跡象,港元匯率已逼近弱方兌換保證7.85,預示著香港金管局短期內可能被動干預市場,從而令市場流動性邊際收緊,部分投資者可能會選擇提前獲利了結。 此外,中美貿易談判結果低於市場預期,尤其是在中國稀土出口政策和美國半導體技術管制等核心議題上,雙方仍存在嚴重分歧,意味著短期內中美關係難以取得實質性改善。 展望後市,該行稱,7月9日美國與其他國家暫緩實施的關稅政策即將到期,目前談判進展甚微,預計市場波動可能隨之加劇。判斷短期內恆生指數仍將在23,000至24,000點之間維持震盪走勢,其中23,000點附近有較強支撐,而在中美關稅問題出現實質性緩和之前,24,000點區域料將持續面臨明顯阻力。
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