《大行》瑞銀料美元下跌利好新興市場股市 預計美聯儲今年減息四次
瑞銀髮表報告,預測美元將持續走弱,至年底歐元兌美元將升至1.23,日圓兌美元將升至130兌一美元。主要貨幣中只有人民幣及墨西哥比索年底前相對於美元匯率將低於其遠期匯率。從戰術角度看,儘管美元指數接近三年低位,美元仍可能繼續走弱。瑞銀預測美國按年經濟增長將從第二季度1.7%放緩至第四季度0.9%,並預計年底前將有四次降息,而市場預期僅爲兩次。
該行認爲美元熊市將持續的結構性理由,包括美國淨外債約爲經濟規模88%,且美元持有過多,美元佔外匯儲備58%,但僅佔全球貿易16%,且G10國家有約13.4萬億美元未對衝美元頭寸,加上「海湖莊園協定」或針對低估貨幣的更高關稅威脅,以及按購買力平價計美元被高估。
該行指,美元走弱通常對全球股市具有統計和邏輯上的正面影響,美元貿易加權指數下跌10%,在其他條件不變下,將使MSCI AC世界指數每股盈測增長約1%至2%。該行認爲新興市場是贏家,當中越南和臺灣股市對美元敏感度最高,巴西與美元相關性最高。相反,日股通常在日圓升值下表現不佳。當美元轉弱,美股在未對衝情況下亦表現不佳。
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