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大行評級|摩根大通:對泡泡瑪特目標價爲330港元 列舉五大催化劑
摩根大通研究報告指,儘管官媒發表評論要求加強盲盒監管,但泡泡瑪特主要目標客羣爲18至45歲,與主要面向中小學生的盲卡不同年齡層,預期零售商將更嚴格執行年齡控制要求,但這也不太可能影響泡泡瑪特的銷售,予其“增持”評級,目標價爲330港元,認爲近期股價疲軟爲“抄底”機會。該行近期將泡泡瑪特列入正面催化劑觀察名單,原因包括:(1)其7月中旬可能發佈盈利預喜(摩通預測2025上半年盈利35億元,超過2024年全年);(2) 即將推出的《Labubu & Friends》動畫(6月已註冊版權,或配合新產品發佈);(3) 8月推出Labubu x Uniqlo T恤;(4)新開設的兩家POPOP珠寶店將售賣更多Labubu產品,另有其他IP商品如SkullPanda、Molly及Dimoo;(5)可能推出互動/AI玩具(公司目前未披露)。 摩通認爲,泡泡瑪特引領中國快速增長的IP商品市場,公司擁有強大的100多個自有及授權IP組合,經營521家自有零售店和2472個機器人商店,遍佈30多個國家,並充分利用主要線上平臺。摩通看好泡泡瑪特的主要原因包括:(1)其強大的IP產品(負擔得起的商品,建立情感與社交聯繫,需求與IP成功推出高度相關而非GDP,Labubu成爲正在崛起的“超級IP”);(2)其全球擴張野心與執行能力(2025年海外銷售按年增長214%,2025至2027年年均複合增長率38%,預計2027年海外銷售貢獻67%)。
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