《大行》花旗:中東潛在供應中斷 氣體原料供應減少或影響化工產量
花旗發表研究報告指,以色列和伊朗之間的衝突令中東潛在供應中斷,將對全球尿素及甲醇市場的潛在影響最大,因爲伊朗是主要的出口國,分別佔全球海運貿易約10%及約25%。氣體原料供應減少可能影響化工產量。
亞洲煉油方面,歐洲依賴中東柴油和航空燃料進口,導致柴油價差上升反映風險溢價,而汽油價差保持穩定。回顧中國成品油定價機制,當每桶油價超過80美元時,煉油毛利將開始逐步下調。如果油價超過130美元,成品油價格或不會進一步上調。雖然庫存潛在增加或可緩衝短期盈利,但預期中石化(00386.HK)的核心煉油總利潤(GRM)或會受到原油溢價上升和現金成本的影響。
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