《大行》大摩:若中東緊張局勢快速解決 油價可能回落至每桶60美元水平
摩根士丹利發表報告指,今年全球充滿不確定性,布倫特原油價格從5月初的低點約60美元/桶上漲到現在接近80美元/桶。該行將全球局勢簡化為三種主要情景:若中東緊張局勢快速解決,油價可能回落至每桶60美元的水平。若局勢持持續緊張,伊朗供應的不確定性可能使油價維持在當前範圍。若全球供應嚴重中斷,地區性運輸受阻,油價將從當前水平大幅上漲。
報告指,雖然近期油價上漲引人注目,但與4月初相比,油價僅溫和上漲;相較於1月中旬,油價幾乎未變,甚至與去年同期相比略有下降。
該行指目前仍在等待觀察油價變動的持續性,需要考慮的問題包括持續或升級的緊張局勢會否進一步影響全球情緒,抑制資本支出和消費者支出。以及如果有關美國直接參與的消息成真,整體局勢會如何變化。
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