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《商品》高盛警告霍爾木茲海峽中斷或推動油價高見110美元
高盛發表報告,警告全球能源供應面臨風險,憂慮霍爾木茲海峽可能會出現中斷,導致石油和天然氣價格大幅飆升。 高盛估計,若通過霍爾木茲海峽的石油在一個月內減半,並在未來十一個月內繼續下降10%,布蘭特期油價格可能短暫高見每桶110美元,之後會稍為回落,到今年第四季布蘭特期油平均將為每桶約95美元。 高盛引述Polymarket數據顯示,市場目前反映伊朗在今年關閉霍爾木茲海峽的可能性為 52%。不過,雖然中東局勢仍然不確定,但高盛認為,包括美國及中國在內的各個國家有強大的經濟動機試圖阻止霍爾木茲海峽發生持續兼且大規模的中斷情況。 高盛稱,若伊朗石油供應在6個月內每日減少175萬桶,其後逐漸恢復,可能令布蘭特期油升至每桶90美元,然後在明年回落至每桶約60美元。而在第二種情況下,即伊朗產量持續走低,但由於庫存減少以及全球閒置產能,布蘭特期油仍可能高見每桶90美元,但在明年穩定在每桶70至80美元之間。
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