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大摩:地緣政治只會引發短暫拋售潮
大摩分析師Michael Wilson表示,美國雖然對伊朗核設施發動攻擊,但地緣政治事件引發的拋售只往短暫。布蘭特期油周一(23日)一度上升5.7%,但目前已轉跌,現報每桶76.75美元,跌0.34%。
他稱,歷史表明,大多數地緣政治引發的拋售都只屬短暫以及溫和,油價走勢將決定市場波動性是否持續。現時美元走弱以及企業盈利增長回升等多個有利因素正在支持美股,但如果油價持續上升,股票投資者可能會感到緊張,因油價上升將對通脹及經濟產生巨大影響,並威脅到減息路徑。
不過,他強調,油價必須大幅飆升才能構成熊市情景,相信油價需要達到每桶120美元才會對商業周期帶來威脅。
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