《大行》大摩:香港住宅市場或處上行周期開始 升恆地(00012.HK)評級至「增持」 降信置(00083.HK)至「與大市同步」
大摩發表報告指,香港住宅市場連續七年下跌,樓價已從2021年8月的歷史高位(於2018年7月首次觸及)回調近30%。儘管可能仍處於早期階段,但該行樂觀地認為可能正處於上行周期的開始,並可能會持續4至5年。原因包括中原CCL已落後於恆生指數,並可能迎頭趕上;工資增長有助負擔能力回升至2010年的水平;結構性利好如低土地供應及取消額外印花稅;低利率。另料樓價下半年升2%。
選股方面,該行偏好新地(00016.HK)、恆地(00012.HK)及嘉里建設(00683.HK),因為它們是香港銀行同業拆息下調的主要受惠者,並具有充裕的可售資源。當中,對恆地評級由「與大市同步」升至「增持」,但將信置(00083.HK)級級由「增持」降至「與大市同步」。地產股目標價詳見另表。
大摩對新世界發展(00017.HK)及九龍倉集團(00004.HK)仍持審慎態度,前者流動資金緊絀及永續債票息遞增,後者估值不吸引及股息率低至1.7%。
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