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大行評級|瑞銀:維持恒生銀行“中性”評級 預計上半年淨利潤同比降17%
格隆匯 06-20 11:48
瑞銀髮表研究報吿指,自5月22日預示香港本地銀行業盈利面臨下調風險以來,一個月期香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)一直低於1%,偏離了過去的季節性模式。儘管擔保隔夜融資利率(SOFR)與HIBOR之間的利差較大,該行認為均值迴歸需要時間。瑞銀經濟學家預測HIBOR將在年底穩定在2%至2.5%。恒生銀行將於7月30日公佈2025年上半年業績,該行預計淨利潤將同比下降17%,主要受三個因素驅動:淨利息收入大幅下降、預期信貸損失減值費用因低基數效應而增加、以及税務費用顯著上升。儘管盈利前景疲弱,瑞銀預計恒生銀行將隨業績公佈推出新的回購計劃。瑞銀指,恒生銀行目前以1.3倍一年期遠期市淨率交易,維持對該股的“中性”評級,目標價112港元,預計恒生銀行2025年股息收益率為5.4%(基於目標價),回購收益率為1%。
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