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《大行》瑞銀料恆生銀行(00011.HK)上半年淨利潤按年跌17% 評級「中性」
阿思達克 06-20 10:37
瑞銀研究報告指,恆生銀行(00011.HK)今年上半年的每股盈餘預計將因淨利息收入(NII)壓縮和預期信貸損失(ECL)費用上升而大幅下滑。恆生銀行將於7月30日公布2025年上半年業績,預計淨利潤將按年下降17%,主要受三個因素驅動:淨利息收入大幅下降、預期信貸損失減值費用因低基數效應而增加、以及稅務費用顯著上升。儘管盈利前景疲弱,瑞銀預計恆生銀行將隨業績公布推出新的回購計劃。值得注意的是,隨著巴塞爾資本協定3.1計劃的實施,普通股權一級資本比率(CET 1)已於今年首季增至20%。 瑞銀指出,自5月22日預示香港本地銀行業盈利面臨下調風險以來,一個月期香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)一直低於1%,偏離了過去的季節性模式。儘管擔保隔夜融資利率(SOFR)與HIBOR之間的利差較大,該行認為均值回歸需要時間。瑞銀經濟學家預測HIBOR將在年底穩定在2%至2.5%。因此,瑞銀下調了恆生銀行2025年預估的淨利息收入(NII)預測,以反映HIBOR持續處於低位。相反,瑞銀上調了恆生銀行非利息收入預估,因低利率環境可能提振淨費用收入和交易收入。在對不良貸款(NPL)風險保持謹慎態度的同時,瑞銀略微上調了恆生銀行2025年預估的ECL費用。 瑞銀指,恆生銀行目前以1.3倍一年期遠期市淨率交易,維持對該股的「中性」評級,目標價112元,預計恆生銀行2025年股息收益率為5.4%(基於目標價),回購收益率為1%。(hc/u) ~
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