《商品》花旗:若伊朗生產中斷持續數月 油價或高見90美元
花旗發表報告,如果伊朗與以色列的敵對行動升級,導致伊朗每日110萬桶的石油出口中斷,預計布蘭特期期油價格可能較衝突前的水平高出約15%至20%,即約每桶75美元至78美元。
花旗稱,伊朗是油組(OPEC)第三大產油國,日產量約330萬桶,若生產中斷持續數個月,可能將油價推高至每桶90美元。目前市場憂慮伊朗會關閉霍爾木茲海峽,花旗認為,所帶來的相關影響只會是短暫,因為各方將專注於快速重新開放海峽。另外,由於目前油價較高,加上中國購買量減少,伊朗石油出口中斷對油價的影響可能小於預期。
另外,摩通發表報告稱,若發生包括霍爾木茲海峽關閉等大範圍地區衝突的極端情況下,預計油價可能飆升至每桶120至130美元。
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