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《大行》摩通:本地地產股高風險債務佔34% 料HIBOR逐步回升至2至3%
摩通發表報告指,自2023年香港商業地產流動性問題加劇以來,對53家上市香港地產公司進行了三次風險評估,2024財年53家上市地產公司中34%的債務被評爲高風險,較2023財年的33%略有上升。中型地產公司高風險比例顯着上升,從2023財年的62%增至72%。除新世界發展(00017.HK)外,大型地產公司的信貸指標仍保持穩健。 該行壓力測試結果顯示,在資產價值再下跌30%情境下,估計8.1%的總債務可能無法履行全部債務義務,較2024上半年9.7%的結果略有改善。 香港銀行同業拆息影響方面,摩通指較低的HIBOR有助降低融資成本。每降低100個基點的HIBOR,利息支出可減少12%,相當於對盈利帶來約5%增長。該行預計HIBOR不會長期維持在1%以下,基準情景下可能逐步回升至2至3%,但仍低於2025年5月前的4%以上水平。 摩通地產股首選太古地產(01972.HK)、領展(00823.HK)及恆地(00012.HK),均提供超過6%的股息收益率,具備穩健基本面及收入潛力。對新世界發展則保持審慎。
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