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《大行》高盛:考慮伊朗供應減少情景 料布蘭特油價有機會飆升至略高於90美元
高盛發表石油報告表示,布蘭特原油價格每桶上漲至每桶76至77美元,該行估計地緣政治風險溢價約為每桶10美元。雖然高盛的基本情景是基於假設石油沒有供應中斷,料布蘭特原油在今年第四季度將下降至每桶60美元左右,但同時考慮到伊朗供應減少的情景預測,料布蘭特原油價格每桶可能飆升至略高於90美元,同時在廣泛的區域石油生產或運輸受到負面影響的尾部風險情景下,此溢價似乎是合理的。 該行指,伊朗的石油出口及通過霍爾木茲海峽的石油運輸仍未受干擾。2025年通過巴布艾曼德海峽(連接紅海與印度洋)的石油流量較2023年下降了45%(相當於每日約330萬桶),顯示出航運易受伊朗控制的胡塞武裝攻擊的脆弱性。 就風險與隱含波動性,Polymarket預測市場顯示,到7月美國對伊朗採取軍事行動的概率為65%,但2025年美伊達成核協議的概率為50%。期貨曲線的變化、隱含波動性的期限結構以及看漲期權的偏態表明,石油市場認為未來幾個月價格可能大幅上漲,但長期展望變化有限。
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