《大行》高盛:京東建立酒店供應具挑戰 籲買入攜程(09961.HK)同程(00780.HK)
高盛研究報告指,京東-SW(09618.HK)(JD.US)日前進軍酒店及旅遊市場,其中一個關鍵的挑戰是建立供應鏈,雖然集團提出酒店商家參與PLUS會員計劃可享最高三年零佣金,但並沒有公布具體條件及細節。該行指,理論上京東要建立供應鏈,最有效的方式是接觸大型連鎖酒店集團,但一些酒店集團如華住-S(01179.HK)、亞朵(ATAT.US),在與該行溝通後重申會優先服務其會員,將維持網上中介平台的貢獻比率不高於20%至25%。而相比起抖音收取4.5%的佣金,京東「零佣金」策略或可吸引對價格較敏感的獨立酒店經營者,這類經營者約佔市場60%份額。
報告指,留意到京東平台上的酒店房選擇已較一周前少,因攜程集團_S(09961.HK)(TCOM.US)及同程(00780.HK)不再與京東共享酒店庫存,與抖音幾年前進入市場時的情況一樣。該行認為京東或會更容易滲透至運輸賽道,因市場結構更集中,且航空業更受監管保障,如規定固定佣金及機票價格不得低於航空公司等。
視乎情況及競爭的發展,該行初步估算攜程今年盈利有13%的下行風險,假設本地業務收入按年增長減慢至5%,以及EBIT利潤率按年跌5個百分點。該行維持對攜程「買入」評級,港、美股目標價分別為608港元及78美元;亦維持對同程的「買入」評級,目標價28.7元,認為同程受京東競爭的影響會較少,因京東明顯更針對攜程的高價值用戶基礎。
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