DWS升明年6月金價目標至每安士3,750美元 未來12個月全球股票總回報約6%
DWS全球首席投資總監Vincenzo Vedda表示,美國股市目前的股價水平略高於2025年初,而歐洲市場則顯著上升,尤其在德國。不過,全球經濟面臨的風險仍然偏高,股票估值主要仍取決於企業盈利。在全球市場,DWS預期本年度及明年企業盈利將持續增長。美國標普500指數在AI熱潮及數碼科技整體增長的帶動下,表現優於平均水平。DWS預測未來12個月全球股票的總回報約為6%。
當中,DWS預料科技股將繼續主導標普500指數走勢,預測標普500指數明年6月將達6,100點。而歐股相對美股的估值折讓已大幅收窄。預測歐洲Stoxx 600指數明年6月將達570點。
此外,企業在應對不斷變化的市場環境方面,能力顯著提升。即使對未來12個月的股市展望相對樂觀,投資者仍應密切留意債券市場的孳息率變化。DWS預計債息會持續波動,但在未來12個月將於目前水平企穩,令債券成為具吸引力的投資選項。DWS預期10年期美國國債孳息率將在目前水平附近整固,但存在大幅上升的風險,料明年6月孳息率為4.5厘。
DWS預計2025年美國經濟增長僅1.2%,而2024年為2.8%。至於歐洲則預計2025年經濟增長為1.1%,略低於美國,但相較2024年僅0.8%的增速仍有起色。DWS又預期美元弱勢持續,明年6月歐元兌美元或升至1.18。
DWS預期聯儲局將繼續對通脹風險保持審慎,最快於今年秋季才會開始減息,並於2026年中之前再減息四次。至於歐洲央行,已於6月初連續第八次下調主要利率至2厘。由於歐元區的通脹已受控,進一步減息的空間料將減少。
黃金方面,Vincenzo Vedda指,支撐黃金的因素包括地緣政治風險持續、美元信心下降、環球流動性增加,以及各國央行持續買入。此格局料將維持,上調目標價至明年6月每安士3,750美元。
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