恆生樑君馡:聯儲局言論略偏鷹派 美股或出現更多獲利回吐盤
恆生銀行財富管理首席投資總監樑君馡表示,聯儲局最新議息會議再次決定維持利率不變,主席鮑威爾指關稅仍是較大的不確定因素。本次聯儲局言論略偏鷹派,股市或受壓。雖然聯儲局官員仍然大致預測今年下半年將減息兩次,但鮑威爾已明確指出貿易關稅將逐漸反映於美國通脹數據,相信聯儲局目前更傾向保持觀望,避免過早減息。該行認爲本次聯儲局較偏鷹派的審慎態度,或令過去一個月大漲至接近歷史高位的美股出現更多獲利回吐盤。再加上市場正密切關注以伊衝突的地緣風險會否擴大,料短期內整體市場避險情緒較高,投資者暫時不會增加股市的部署。
樑君馡續指,美債的表現反而更看美國減稅方案。聯儲局保守的言論令美債暫時缺乏方向,但市場更關注特朗普的《大而美法案》未來將爲美國政府帶來更深的赤字壓力。雖然中東的地緣風險令美元和美債短期內受到一定支持,但中長線來看,美國政府債務繼續惡化的風險不可忽視。面對美國關稅、減稅和債務等問題,該行認爲債券投資部署應採取地區分散和貨幣分散的策略。
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