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摩通私銀:日央行年內可能再加息 日圓或呈結構性升值
摩根大通私人銀行全球市場策略師唐雨旋指出,受到美日談判進展緩慢及關稅不確定性的影響,日本央行在調整政策利率方面預期將保持耐性。她指出,目前美元兌日圓仍低於日本央行設定的「底線」,而中東局勢升級可能推高能源價格,對以石油進口為主的日本經濟構成壓力,不過仍相信今年底前日本央行有可能再度加息,指出當地稻米價格飆升已開始對經濟造成影響,認為本周美聯儲會議結果將影響日本央行決策方向,倘若聯儲局至今年底都維持「觀望」立場,日本央行或面臨更大加息壓力。 該行估計今次日本央行會議重點將放在量化緊縮計劃的評估上,今年日本國債收益率曲線出現明顯熊式走峭,目前自動減少國債購買步伐對債市影響有限,但結構性供需失衡可能引發持續波動。 外匯方面,唐雨旋預期日圓將呈現具結構性升值趨勢,惟升勢屬逐步。由於持有日圓仍需承擔高昂負利差,該行不建議投機性長倉配置日圓,但認同適度持有日圓長倉可作為宏觀下行風險的對沖,提升投資組合避險能力。
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