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2連板後放量炸板,歷時4年“摘帽”的紅太陽能否“涅槃重生”?
格隆匯 06-18 13:37

今日,農藥股紅太陽開盤拉昇,再度升停,實現2連板,隨後炸板,最新升2.66%,報9.27元/股,總市值120.3億元。

同時,紅太陽目前的成交額高達17.19億元,創下歷史新高。

自2月26日觸及低點5.42元/股以來,紅太陽股價累計升超81%。

農藥升價預期

5月27日,友道化學一車間發生爆炸,引發投資者對氯蟲苯甲酰胺及其關鍵中間體K胺的關注。

A股市場出現爆炸概念股的炒作,聯化科技5月27日-6月10日累計升超126%,廣康生化5月27日-6月17日累計升超123%,輝隆股份5月27日-6月12日累計升超43%,紅太陽5月27日至今累計升超39%。

據悉,氯蟲苯甲酰胺是全球市場規模最大殺蟲劑,中國原藥專利2022年過期,行業內企業快速擴產,導致供過於求,原藥價格從高位的250元/噸下跌到21萬元/噸‌。

經國金證券測算,友道事故可能使全球供應缺口擴大到3000-4000噸,佔年需求的30%-40%。

供給端出現擾動的背景下,氯蟲苯甲酰胺的價格出現上升。

6月5日,紅太陽發佈升價函,將旗下97%氯蟲苯甲酰胺產品價格調整至30萬元/噸,限量供應。

而5月下旬,氯蟲苯甲酰胺的市場成交參考價為22.5萬元/噸左右。

6月12日,市場上流傳出一份文件,輝隆股份旗下子公司正式啟動97%氯蟲苯甲酰胺產品預售,預售價格為32萬元/噸,根據預售訂單排序發貨。

經輝隆股份工作人員證實,上述預售通知屬實。對於後續是否會繼續升價,該人員稱,需要看市場的供需情況,目前也只是報價。

對此,東方證券認為,農藥行業景氣度已低迷較長時間,在爆炸事件驅動下,行業整體回報率邊際修復的動力較大,看好具備差異化增長邏輯的公司,分為製造差異化及渠道差異化。

成功“摘帽”

除了農藥升價預期之外,紅太陽曆時四年終於“摘帽”。

近期,紅太陽的兩大歷史遺留問題徹底解決。

28.84億元資金佔用清零。此前2021年5月6日,因被原控股股東南一農集團非經營性資金佔用,紅太陽被實施其他風險警示。

2024年12月,經審計機構中興財光華會計師事務所確認,紅太陽已嚴格按照江蘇證監局要求,通過重整程序等措施,全額清收了28.84億元被佔用資金,相關風險宣吿消除。

3000萬問題預付款“轉正”。2023年內控審計報吿指出,紅太陽存在3000萬元預付款項缺乏合理商業依據的問題。

2024年,紅太陽通過積極協商,最終與安徽潁發達成一致,將預付款轉化為實際的乙醇採購合同。

截至2025年3月末,價值3000萬元的乙醇貨物已全部按合同約定交付、驗收完畢,該預付款項的商業實質和合理性得到落實,不確定性消除。

隨着風險擔憂因素逐漸消除,再疊加當下行業升價趨勢,紅太陽能否“涅槃重生”,讓我們拭目以待。

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