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普徠仕料美聯儲年底前減息零至一次
阿思達克 06-18 12:28
普徠仕表示,受關稅影響下,通眼壓力或會阻礙聯儲局減息,因此看好通脹掛鉤債券和實物資產股票,以對衝通脹風險,並對長期美國國債持偏低比重,因其較易受到利率在更長時期維持高企的負面影響。 普徠仕亞太區多元資產解決方案主管Thomas Poullaouec表示,由於估值偏高,對股票尤其是美股持審慎態度,但看好盈利前景更具競爭力,並且有望受惠政刺激措施的歐洲和新興市場股票。在預期市場波動的環境下,對現金維持偏高比重,因其提供吸引的回報率和流動性。 該行指,環球經濟日益受壓,貿易衝突的影響正威脅環球經濟增長前景。由於生產成本上升將侵蝕企業利潤,消費品關稅料將會削弱實質購買力,對佔美國當地生產總值七成的消費開支帶來衝擊,美國經濟增長面臨下行風險。 對於市場期望美聯儲年底前會減息一到兩次,他認爲該預期有風險,料只會減息一次,甚至是零,作爲金融環境收緊的一部分。他指,金融狀況在第二季出乎意料地鬆動,意味着美聯儲局有機會在按兵不動下保持利率穩定,製造一點緊縮,藉此移除一些已被市場定價的減息預期。 另外,該行指,DeepSeek顯示出中國在人工智能領域的能力,相信中國人工智能技術有望進一步加速發展。同時亦留意到內地出現新消費模式以及消費者偏好和行爲的轉變,涉及領域如設計師品牌、新鮮飲料、年輕啤酒品牌、音樂串流供應商,以及零食產品。
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