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《大行》花旗:若港匯觸及弱方兌換保證 料700億至1,000億元流動性會被抽走
花旗發表研究報告指,若港元兌美元觸及7.85弱方兌換保證且外匯需求仍存在,金管局將沽售美元以維持聯繫匯率,並減少港元流動性,估計將會有約700億至1,000億港元流動性會被抽走,導致短期港元利率升至介乎2%至3%,屆時港元兌美元將重回約7.82至7.83兌一美元水平。 該行認爲,即使HIBOR企穩在2%至3%,仍較今年首季水平低約1至2個百分點,更低的利率將爲經濟發展帶來支持,香港地產商可受惠於融資成本下降,低息環境亦對商業地產有利,目前預測至今年底三個月HIBOR將升至約3%,但仍低於首季時水平。 花旗估算,若HIBOR企穩在2.2%以上,住宅實際按息料達3.5%,若港元利率的回落可持續,香港地產商融資成本負擔可減輕,預料全年利潤可增加高達3%,維持全年香港樓價下跌3%的預測。考慮到房託及住宅類地產股更能受惠,經歷近期升幅後,基於估值及最新業績預測,花旗預料香港地產股股價將在現有水平整固,首選股包括香港置地、領展(00823.HK)及新地(00016.HK)。 對於港銀,該行認爲HIBOR回落爲銀行帶來淨息差壓力,估計HIBOR每下降25個基點,銀行的稅前盈利將受到0.2%至2.1%的負面影響。
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