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《大行》摩通:若區域衝突進一步擴大 油價或重見每桶120美元 看好中石油(00857.HK)
摩通發表報告指,以色列上週末攻擊伊朗南帕斯天然氣田,爲對能源基建的首次直接攻擊。雖然伊朗大部分天然氣用於國內消費,但料事件將加劇市場對更廣泛區域衝突的擔憂。 該行指,油價自上月5日低位每桶60美元上漲每桶15美元,原因包括與伊朗的地緣政治緊張局勢升級,油組上月產量增加未達其宣稱每日41.1萬桶,顯示更高合規性,以及中美關稅休戰,摩通將下半年經濟衰退風險從60%下調至40%。該行認爲,近期每桶漲價15美元,當中每桶超過10美元上漲來自投機好倉增加。 該行又表示,若區域衝突進一步擴大,油價或回到每桶120美元。該行對布蘭特期油明年首季基準預測爲每桶55美元,未包含任何地緣政治風險溢價或重大石油供應中斷。 該行建議增加對高品質亞洲能源公司的好倉,例如中石油(00857.HK),該行上調其H股目標價至8元,反映新疆氣田突破。該行同時建議沽售中石化(00386.HK),預計第二季業績遜預期。該行最爲看淡的航空股爲國航(00753.HK)及南航(01055.HK)。航運公司而言,料更高運費抵銷燃料成本增加的負面影響,該行喜好長榮(2603.TT)及中遠海控(01919.HK)。
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