《大行》瑞銀:部分外資行未參與新世界(00017.HK)再融資或引發擔憂 料中資銀行可彌補資金缺口
瑞銀發表研究報告指,據報新世界(00017.HK)正就875億港元再融資貸款與50多家銀行磋商,預料是路勁(01098.HK)後近年第二家延付永續債息的香港發展商。雖然新世界據指已獲匯豐、恆生(00011.HK)及中行(03988.HK)等主要銀行提供超過500億港元的融資承諾,但有指部分外資銀行並未參與再融資,並要求新世界到期時還款,瑞銀認為將引發市場對於銀行縮減信貸支持的擔憂,可能加劇對香港地產商流動性問題,並引發更廣泛的違約。
數據顯示,截至2023年,非本地銀行合共發放約4,190億元的房地產貸款,當中包括1,610億元的物業投資貸款,假設無抵押投資貸款及無抵押開發貸款違約率為50%及15%,在最壞情況下非本地銀行淨損失料610億元,涉及1,720億元物業貸款,佔銀行體系總額11%。考慮到大多數非本地銀行均是亞洲金融機構,瑞銀認為外資撤離本港的風險有限,強調香港市場仍是外資行捕捉財富管理機遇的重要據點。
即使外資縮減業務規模,瑞銀相信中資銀行亦有能力彌補任何資金缺口,可能會向能夠提供額外抵押品的發展商給予再融資支持,目前對銀行業維持中性看法,對中銀香港(02388.HK)、恆生、東亞(00023.HK)給予「中性」評級,當中列中銀香港為首選本地銀行股。
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