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《內房》高盛料未來數年中國對新房需求較2017年高峰期低出75%
高盛發表報告,認為由於中國人口減少以及預期樓價下跌影響投資氣氛,預計未來數年中國對新房需求將較2017年高峰期低出75%。
報告稱,隨著人口下降以及城鎮化放緩,人口對住房的需求正在下降。在業主出售空置房屋下,中國的投資需求可能會轉為負值。未來數年中國城鎮對新房的全年需求可能仍將略低於500萬套,遠低於2017年2,000萬套的高位。
高盛提到,預計中國城鎮的年度人口住房需求將在十年內減少大約一半,從2010年代的每年940萬套下降到2025年至2030年的平均每年410萬套。隨著樓價預期會下降,投資性房地產的業主在可預見的未來可能會成為淨賣家。
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