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稀土股持續走強,稀土ETF基金、稀土ETF、稀土ETF易方達年內漲超15%

A股主要指數早盤集體上漲,盤面上,稀土永磁方向漲幅居前。

港股三大指數呈現高開高走行情,港股市場稀土股繼續走強,其中,中國稀土(0769.HK)漲超12%,該股已連續第三日大漲,累漲109%。

截至午盤,A股中科磁業20cm漲停,銀河磁體漲超12%,北礦科技、華宏科技、寧波韻升漲停,帶動稀土ETF基金漲4.02%,位居全市場ETF漲幅榜第一。此外,富國稀土ETF、稀土ETF易方達、華泰柏瑞稀土ETF漲超3.8%。年初至今,稀土ETF漲超15%。

目前市場上有4只跟蹤稀土產業指數ETF,其中,稀土ETF基金最新規模21.36億元,規模位居同類第一。

稀土永磁上漲,消息面上,相關機構指出,中國自4月實施的中重稀土出口管制(佔全球80%供應),疊加緬甸地震對運輸的影響,導致海外企業高價搶購庫存,部分品種價格單月漲幅超200%。作爲不可替代的戰略資源,疊加我國主導定價權、出口管制擴大供需缺口等因素共振,未來看稀土將有望長期維持價格高位與供不應求態勢。

中信建投指出,受出口或逐步放鬆預期影響,市場上調稀土原料報價。該行表示,隨着出口許可發放,金屬出口逐步恢復,國內價格錨定海外高價明顯上漲,內外價差收斂以國內上漲方式進行。因此,後續稀土出口管制放鬆或對價格上漲呈助推作用,稀土板塊迎估值提升之後再迎利潤增厚雙擊。

華寶證券表示,稀土在國防、新能源、新材料、航空航天、電子信息等領域有着不可替代的地位,幾乎所有高科技武器核心部位都要用到,被稱爲“工業維生素”、“軍事的核心”。但因其資源分佈不均、提純加工難度大,導致價格長期居高不下。我國是全球稀土資源最豐富的國家,全球儲量佔比40%,全球產量佔比70%,且擁有全球最完整的稀土產業鏈(涵蓋開採、選礦、冶煉、分離、加工等環節),冶煉分離產能的全球佔比高達92.3%。2020年至2023年,美國從中國進口的稀土化合物和金屬佔到該國總進口量的70%。在此背景之下,2025年4月,我國商務部、海關總署宣佈對部分中重稀土相關物項實施出口管制,其中涵蓋了對航空電子設備領域至關重要的資源,將進一步擴大其全球供需缺口並再度推高價格。不可替代的戰略資源地位+我國主導定價權+出口管制擴大供需缺口,未來看稀土將有望長期維持價格高位與供不應求態勢。

招商證券認爲,稀土有望迎來全面上漲:近期看,因出口管制,2025年4月份稀土永磁出口量爲2627噸,環比下降51%,同比縮減45%,創近五年來稀土永磁歷史新低。預計5月出口依然較少。稀土出口管制逾兩月,海外車企原料庫存告急。預計隨着許可證陸續取得,海外補庫和備庫需求下,三四季度磁材出口將大幅提升。稀土配額管理趨嚴或導致冶煉分離產能出清,下遊需求短中期受益於海外補庫和備庫需求,長期有望受益於人形機器人和低空的發展,採選冶煉分離以及磁材企業有望受益利潤回升。

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