《大行》花旗:領展(00823.HK)短期內分拆資產機會微 維持「買入」評級
花旗銀行研究報告指,根據領展(00823.HK)3.0策略,其將通過基金管理及上市房地產投資信託基金(REIT)組合打造雙引擎。該行認為領展短期內可能在資產管理業務上培育一個已發展市場信托基金,但純粹的資產分拆短期內不太可能發生。
花旗表示,領展股價自4月以來上漲25%。以6.4%的收益率計算,相較10年期美國國債收益率溢價190個基點,與10年平均水平持平,但低於3年及5年平均值(同為250個基點)。該行表示,由於預計每單位分派(DPU)因3%至5%的負租金調整而下降約2.5%,總回報看似合理。此外,因領展近期無明顯負面催化劑,預期股價將在當前水平附近整固。
花旗認為,領展可通過租賃及成本優化應對宏觀經濟逆風,並在營運表現上跑贏整體市場。在2026至2027財年,花旗預計每單位分派(DPU)按年分別下降2.5%及1.5%,其中香港零售業務上預計3%至5%負租金調整;停車場業務增長(按年增1%至2%),受惠於收費調整及智能停車系統;財務成本上,浮動利率債務(177億港元,佔33%)受益於1個月香港銀行同業拆息率(HIBOR)下降(年化100個基點等於2.5% DPU)。該行續指,更新後的高管薪酬計劃納入單位回報、財務及營運指標、ESG及房地產平台等關鍵績效指標(KPI),以實現更好的利益一致性。
鑑於6.5%的收益率(相較10年期美國國債收益率高200個基點;歷史平均190個基點)及潛在的股票通納入,花旗對領展維持「買入」評級,目標價為47.25元。
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