全球化龍頭關稅無虞 長江證券維持聯想"買入"評級
近日，長江證券發佈點評報告，稱聯想集團FY2025財年及Q4業績表現亮眼，三大業務全線突破，維持"買入"評級。
業務線點評如下：
IDG業務穩健增長，非PC產品多點開花：
FY2025公司IDG部門實現營收3647億元,，同比增長13%；運營利潤率達到7.2%。PC作爲公司基石業務，FY2024 營收同比增長11%，市佔率提升至23.7%，超越第二名3.6pct，在消費電子需求波動的形勢下，持續發揮龍頭穩健增長優勢。FY2025非PC業務營收佔比達到47%，同比增長5pct，其中：(1)智能手機業務營收同比增長27%創歷史新高，其中亞太地區同比增長179%，歐洲-中東-非洲區同比增長32%，主因高端機型razr摺疊屏銷量表現優異；(2)平板電腦FY2025銷量同比增長15%。展望後續，2025年是公司AIPC全球推廣的元年，智能手機。平板電腦等產品全新爆發，公司"一體多端"的生態系統持續豐富。
ISG業務連續盈利趨勢已現，SSG業務解決方案佔比持續提升：
FY2025 ISG部門實現營收1048億元,同比增長63%創歷史新高，並自上季度扭虧後連續兩季度實現盈利。細分來看雲基礎設施業務(CSP)營收突破100億美元，同比增長92%，海內外客戶均有重大突破；企業基礎設施業務(ESMB)營收同比增長20%創歷史新高。FY2025 SSG部門實現營收610億元，同比增長13%,運營利潤率繼續維持21.1%的高位。解決方案和"即服務"佔比達到58%，同比提升4pct。聯想集團緊握AI時代大趨勢，以基礎設施+解決方案一棧式服務各類型客戶,"一擎三箭"體系漸成。
戰略佈局上，AIPC大勢所趨，全球化龍頭關稅無虞。5月8日聯想聯想創新科技大會發布天禧個人超級智能體,進一步強化AIPC的自主認知決策能力，凸出聯想將AIPC打造成個人助理的先進理念。近期關稅擾動對聯想產能調配產生影響，但長期來看聯想有應對關稅及地緣風險的充分經驗,銷售地區以及產能分佈均遍佈全球各大洲。伴隨下半年AIPC加速滲透+AI服務器訂單持續放量,看好聯想持續發揮AI雲端協同的龍頭優勢，預計FY2026-FY2028實現歸母淨利潤16.65/19.16/22.14億美元,維持"買入"評級。
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