建銀國際趙文利:港股下半年有條件突破25,000點關鍵分水嶺 料中美或先達成局部協議
建銀國際證券研究部董事總經理、研究部主管及首席策略師趙文利表示,今年以來港股韌性增強,由於新質生產力和高質量發展的估值重估轉變,風險回報和可投資性明顯改善。下半年將是港股新一輪牛市基礎的關鍵階段。
趙文利預計下半年港股走勢總體維持震蕩向上,並有條件突破25,000點關鍵分水嶺,恆指波動區間介乎22,000至26,000點,國企指數波動區間介乎7,800至9,800點,科技指數介乎5,000至6,600點。投資建議方式,籲第三季逢低吸納,可基礎配置高息股及貴金屬板塊,重點關注新質生產力和高質量發展主題,精選科技、醫藥、高端製造和內需股(消費及新消費、服務業等)。
他認為,美聯儲在9月減息的機會非常高,8月貨幣政策框架再評估及Jackson Hole會議很可能為重啟降息鋪路,但後續降息空間仍存在高度不確定性。
中美關稅談判方面,他相信關稅再回到145%高位的可能性極低,但同時亦較難完全解決。他預料中美或會先達成局部協議,美國目標是通過維持一定程度的施壓作為談判籌碼,而非回到極限施壓狀態,因此關稅將介乎10%至60%。雖然談判進展仍存在不確定因素,但只要兩國繼續談判,對全球資本市場來說已經是不錯的情況。
至於金價,他提到由於美元走弱速度較快,加上地緣政治風險上升,而且更多資產配置納入黃金,相信金價於未來6至12個月上升的機會非常大,料今年黃金均價增長30%至3,115美元,中長期有望再創歷史新高3,500美元。
下半年選股方面,他分享十大焦點股,包括騰訊(00700.HK)、網易(09999.HK)、小米(01810.HK)、泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)、零跑汽車(09863.HK)、招商銀行(03968.HK)、山東黃金(01787.HK)、中船防務(00317.HK)、信達生物(01801.HK)及京東健康(06618.HK)。
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