《大行》招商證券升赤子城(09911.HK)目標價至12.2元 評級「增持」
招商證券國際發表研究報告指,赤子城科技(09911.HK)5月業務出現回暖,早前表現受回教國家齋月宗教節日帶來的季節性疲軟影響;人工智慧正推動公司在用戶互動和產品創新方面取得進展,公司亦在香港設立新的全球總部,人工智慧研發將作爲其主要職能之一。該行對赤子城科技予以「增持」評級,因風險回報具吸引力,潛在盈利預喜及年內納入港股通有望成爲催化劑,並將目標價從7.7元上調至12.2元。
該行表示,赤子城5月業務明顯回暖,此前數月(尤其是3月)受齋月宗教節日影響,表現相對疲軟。該行表示,公司收入接近完成全年指引的約50%。基於公司下半年一貫強勁的季節性表現,該行對赤子城2025年的展望更加樂觀,並上調了全年營收與盈利預測。
該行預測赤子城2025年收入將達到69億元人民幣(下同),按年增長36%(此前預測爲增長27%);調整後淨利潤爲11.3億元,按年增長82%(此前預測爲增長72%)。該行指,增長主要由強勁的內生動能驅動,預計Sugo與TopTop將維持強勁勢頭,其他傳統產品將實現穩定的個位數增長,同時Mico業務在經歷近年下滑後已趨於穩定,對整體業績的拖累顯着減輕。此外,赤子城2025年盈利有望受益於MICO集團少數股東權益剔除後的利潤貢獻(佔2024年稅前利潤約35%)。該行預計赤子城2025年上半年收入爲28億元,按年增長25%;調整後淨利潤爲4.97億元,按年增長92%。
招商證券指,赤子城股價年初至今已上漲152%。公司先前將2025年股票回購計劃加碼至4億港元,目前累計回購約1億港元股份。目前赤子城估值相當於預測未來12個月市盈率9.6倍,市盈增長率0.4倍,顯着低於中國網絡同行平均市盈率的15倍和市盈增長率1倍,以及美國同行的27倍市盈率和市盈增長率1.4倍。
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