《大行》瑞銀升古茗(01364.HK)目標價至31.15元 維持「買入」評級
瑞銀發表研究報告指,古茗(01364.HK)今年以來同店銷售增長約10%,開店計劃已達1,500至2,000家,均優於該行先前的預估。該行認為古茗超出預期的表現得益於公司產品創新(例如推出咖啡飲品)以及京東在食品外送方面的補貼。儘管該股自上市以來上漲190%,該行仍對古茗維持「買入」評級,並認為其當前估值具吸引力(1.3倍動態市盈率,相較於中國同業的1.9倍)。該行對古茗的盈利預測高於市場同業預測4%至14%。
該行指,古茗管理層重申其2030年達到30,000家門市的長期目標,根據該行的估計,這將支撐約20%的年均門市增長。古茗目前已進入20個省份,其中三大核心省份(浙江、江西、福建)約佔總門市數的40%(相較於中國總人口的11%),顯示其在非核心地區的擴張潛力。
瑞銀將古茗2025至2027年的每股盈利預測上調6%至11%,主要受惠於收入預測上調6%至12%,分別達到115億元、141億元和172億元人民幣,料得益於:1)在內地三、四線城市及更多地區的開店速度快於預期;2)料2025年同店銷售按佃增長6%,受到咖啡飲品推出的推動。
該行將基於現金流折現(DCF)估值方式,將古茗目標價從19.28元上調至31.15元,此相當於預測2025年及2026年市盈率分別為34倍和27倍,2025年動態市盈率為1.4倍,低於新消費同業2025、2026年平均預測市盈率43倍和35倍及2025年平均動態市盈率1.9倍。該行維持對古茗「買入」評級。
瑞銀料古茗於2025年至2027年收入及純利複合增長率各大致為22%及23%。
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