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《大行》中銀國際料恆指年底上望25,700點 關注高階製造業、內需、高股息及南向交易活躍股票
中銀國際發表策略報告,香港金融市場流動性改善,有利於香港股市。2025年至今,香港股市在波動中錄得增長,截至今年截至6月3日止以來的平均每日成交額達2,409億港元,遠高於去年同期的1,104億港元及2024年全年的1,318億港元。恆生科技指數今年以來已累漲16.15%。截至6月3日,除能源板塊下跌2.58%外,所有板塊均錄得正收益,其中醫療保健、材料和資訊科技板塊表現較佳,分別上漲37.18%、27.31%和24.56%。 該行指,香港金融市場流動性改善是穩定股市的關鍵。儘管近期地緣政治風險上升,但香港金融市場流動性充裕,有助於穩定股市並改善市場情緒。自今年5月初以來,香港金管局通過外匯市場操作向銀行系統注入約1,318億港元的流動性,銀行業總結餘從5月2日的446億港元大幅增至6月3日的1,764億港元。同時,香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)隔夜利率從5月2日的4.22%驟降至6月3日的0.02%,顯示流動性極為充裕。 此外,香港IPO市場在流動性上升的推動下蓬勃發展。根據WIND數據,2025年至今香港股市IPO融資總額達773.6億港元,按年大增701.4%。A/H股溢價收窄,恆生A/H股溢價指數從2024年12月31日的143降至2025年6月3日的132.5,相當於A股較H股平均溢價32.5%。 中銀國際表示,南向交易在香港股市中扮演關鍵角色,近年錄得穩健淨流入,對穩定股市至關重要。截至6月3日,2025年南向交易累計淨流入6,143億人民幣,遠高於去年同期的2,626億人民幣。南向交易有助提升投資情緒和選股靈感。過去十年,內地相關公司在香港股市逐漸佔主導地位。根據香港交易所數據,截至2025年4月底,內地相關公司股票佔總市值81.2%,交易額佔91.29%。2025年今年以來,南向交易佔香港平均每日成交額的21.5%,高於2024年的17.3%、2023年的14.1%和2022年的11.8%。 2025年投資展望方面,中銀國際對香港股市保持樂觀,預計主要政策制定者將繼續推出貨幣、財政及房地產和股市政策,以抵消美國總統特朗普潛在不利政策的影響。該行維持恆生指數於2025年底達25,700點的預測。投資建議方面,建議關注資訊科技和高階製造業板塊。DeepSeek的成功將增強中國對高科技和高階製造業發展的信心。未來,中國將更重視提升科技創新能力,這對經濟長期持續增長至關重要。中國正處於經濟轉型關鍵階段,發展科技創新或資訊科技板塊可能成為經濟發展的驅動力,有助解決經濟結構性問題。同時,投資者可關注受益於內需增長、高股息率股票及南向交易活躍股票。
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