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《大行》建銀國際料恆指下半年於22,000至26,000點區間波動 建議第三季度逢低吸納
建銀國際發表今年下半年港股展望報告表示,今年以來港股韌性增強,熊牛切換進一步走向深入,主要體現在兩個方面:港股底部持續擡升,成交配合,一、二級市場良性循環初步建立;投資邏輯由估值修復向基於新質生產力和高質量發展的估值重估轉變,風險回報和可投資性明顯改善。 該行料今年下半年將是夯實港股新一輪牛市基礎的關鍵階段,主要影響因素和事件窗口包括:7至8月美國與主要貿易夥伴談判結果;美國大美麗法案及財政問題進展;美聯儲重啓降息的節奏及力度;美元下行週期逐步確認,有望爲港股帶來更多流動性;市場對中國經濟韌性、人民幣匯率和企業盈利前景的再評估;7月、10月及12月中央政治局會議、四中全會和年底中央經濟工作會議等將是重要的增量政策觀察窗口;十五五規劃綱要相關文件出爐將爲行業和主題投資提供更清晰的指引。而美聯儲9至12月或重啓降息,8月貨幣政策框架再評估及Jackson Hole峯會很可能將爲重啓降息鋪路,但後續降息空間,特別是2026年,仍存高度不確定性。主要風險因素:貿易談判的不確定性、美國經濟超預期下滑風險、美日財政及債務風險、地緣政治、自然災變等。 建銀國際預計下半年港股走勢總體維持震盪向上並有條件突破25,000點關鍵分水嶺,恆生指數波動區間介於22,000至26,000點,國企指數波動區間介於7,800至9,800點,科技指數介於5,000至6,600點。投資建議:建議第三季度逢低吸納,採取攻守平衡的啞鈴型配置並相機逐步加強進攻,可基礎配置高息股及貴金屬板塊,重點關注新質生產力和高質量發展主題,精選科技、醫藥、高端製造和內 需股(消費及新消費、服務業等)。
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