You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行》交銀國際:內房顯現止跌回穩跡象 料港下半年樓價升3%
交銀國際發表報告指,中國內地房地產行業顯現「止跌回穩」跡象。2025年前四個月全國新建商品房銷售額達27,035億元人民幣,按年降幅收窄至3.2%。雖然局部供需失衡,但住宅市場有望在2025年趨於穩定,預計全年新房銷售額在8萬億至8.5萬億元人民幣。 政策層面,下半年可能延續收儲政策、盤活存量土地、支持現房銷售、微調住房金融政策及推動租賃市場發展。投資建議方面,優先推薦估值較低的國企背景開發商,其次爲擁有一、二線城市土儲的民營龍頭,其他民企開發商排名最後。 報告指,2025年香港房地產市場面臨宏觀不確定性,但關鍵利好因素正在顯現。人口回升、HIBOR大幅下降有望穩定住宅市場,預計2025下半年至2027年住宅價格分別增長3%、5%和5%。零售板塊因本地及旅客消費習慣變化承壓,但北上消費趨勢緩解租金壓力,整體調整溫和。辦公樓市場因空置率高位及新項目落成,反彈空間有限,仍需謹慎觀望。 該行指,減息及HIBOR下行將成爲未來12至18個月的潛在催化劑,推動本地收租股及REITs估值提升。短期港股通可能納入REITs,進一步促進行業重估。香港房地產行業偏好排序爲零售REITs>低負債住宅開發商>零售物業持有者>辦公樓業務佔比高的REITs/開發商。領展(00823.HK)爲首選標的。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account