華泰證券:化工板塊下遊改善有望延續,中遊供需拐點漸近
華泰證券研報稱,需求偏弱疊加新產能投放等致化工整體價差仍偏弱,但2025年下半年伴隨需求復甦及資本開支顯著降速疊加供給側自主調整,化工週期品有望迎來複蘇拐點。油價短期面臨需求擔憂及供給協同趨弱壓力,成本減壓及需求改善或助力下遊環節延續復甦態勢。板塊而言,油價中長期存底部支撐,且龍頭企業降本增量;大宗化工關注格局率先優化的品種及龍頭企業價值修復機遇;下遊製品/精細品需求改善和毛利率修復並行,疊加出口/出海和新技術驅動;優質重資產化工企業有望現金流改善及分紅意願提升。
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