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研報掘金丨中金:予新城控股“跑贏行業”評級,目標價16.80元

中金公司研報指出,新城控股(601155.SH)屬於少數保持財務端安全的老牌民營房企,判斷公司信用債兌付可帶來“困境反轉”的估值修復,加之商業資產紮實,給予“跑贏行業”評級,目標價16.80元。公司未來兩年潛在流動性缺口主要源於3筆海外信用債(共10億美元),我們根據現金流模型發現:1)公司基準情形下未來兩年可新融與存量貸款抵押率提升合計籌資約110億元;2)未來兩年現金流有望實現動態平衡,信用債兌付確定性較強,壓力峯值在2025年7-10月,反轉信號時點清晰。

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