《大行》招商證券首次覆蓋泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)予「增持」 目標價272元
阿思達克 06-04 11:25
招商證券國際發表研究報告，預計泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)2025年收入和淨利潤，將分別達到250和70億元人民幣(下同)，較市場預期高出15%，並將泡泡瑪目標價定為272港元，首次予以「增持」評級。
招商證券預計，泡泡瑪特2025年淨利潤將達70億元，較市場一致預期高出約15%，這一差距主要源於市場低估泡泡瑪特海外擴張的規模與速度。該行基於以下三大關鍵因素看好該股，1)線上GMV快速增長，預計全年收入將達55億元，增長280%；2)公司計劃新開設100家門店，持續拓展在美國、英國、東南亞、澳洲及歐洲的市場佈局；3)在泰國和美國市場的帶動下，門店單位經濟效益按年增長50%。
該行認為，泡泡瑪特的獨特優勢在於其垂直整合的IP生態體系，涵蓋原創IP孵化、藝術家培養、全渠道零售以及國際授權等多個環節。公司也已成功實現產品多元化，業務從盲盒拓展至毛絨玩具、MEGA收藏系列、飾品及數字娛樂等品類，全球影響力持續增強。該行認為泡泡瑪特的國際化擴張仍處於早期階段，海外門店滲透率存在顯著提升空間。
招商證券國際預測泡泡瑪特2025、2026及2027年營收將分別按年增長93%、47%及42%。這一增長主要由海外市場營收的強勁增長所驅動，預計分別為181%、71%及58%；同期中國市場營收增速則為37%、15%及11%。從收入結構來看，預計海外市場將分別貢獻57%、66%和74%的年度總營收。該行認為海外市場將持續跑贏國內市場，核心邏輯在於海外潛在市場(TAM)規模預計為中國市場的3至4倍。
該行業預計泡泡瑪特2025年中國內地市場營收將按年增長37%，並預計公司在2025年實現淨新增門店約30家，平均門店數量按年增長約9%。
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