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瑞銀指對等關稅暫緩或令美經濟避免「硬着陸」 但衰退風險上升
阿思達克 06-04 09:54
瑞銀報告指,美國總統特朗普暫緩對等關稅,或令美國經濟避免「硬着陸」,但經濟衰退風險上升。 報告指,該行硬數據模型的經濟衰退概率按月升12個百分點至上月的46%,模型追蹤就業、資本開支、房屋、收入及支出。當中部分受關稅影響,但組成指標的因素廣泛出現疲弱性。至於孳息率曲線顯示衰退概率爲18%,雖按年上升但未到危機水平。信貸指標顯示衰退概率爲48%,爲新冠疫情以來最高水平,反映金融脆弱性急升。 瑞銀綜合三個指標,得出整體衰退概率爲37%,較去年12月低位的26%升11個百分點,與衰退前發展水平一致。
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