中信證券:全球奢侈品行業2025Q1再度承壓
中信證券發佈研報指出,在經歷了2024年年末的復甦曙光後,全球奢侈品行業2025Q1再度承壓。基於中信證券統計,行業平均增速同比持平(vs.24Q4增速為+3%,24Q3增速為-4%),同時品牌、品類間業績持續分化。在消費者愈發理性、講究“質價比”的背景下,行業大幅提價與創意提升並不匹配,疊加當前宏觀環境的不確定因素,中信證券認為行業短期壓力將持續。分品牌看,頭部品牌愛馬仕及歷峯珠寶部門表現優異,Prada及Coach勢能延續,開雲集團旗下Gucci、LVMH旗下Dior等品牌處在對產品、渠道等方面的改革階段,壓力相對顯著。分地區看,Q1中國市場整體趨穩;日本市場面臨較大的基數壓力,同時奢侈品旅遊消費在價差縮減的背景下走向常態化;北美市場則在24Q4假日季後出現一定程度降温。品類上,皮具表現分化,珠寶韌性明顯,腕錶低基數下數據改善。展望後續,中信證券認為短期北美市場受金融市場波動與關税衝擊或延續降温,日本市場的基數壓力或將進一步加大中信證券認為中國奢侈品消費的核心動能來自於財富效應,按照居民資產負債表修復的順序來看,高端消費的復甦有望預期先行。在無增量利空因素的假設下,中信證券預計中國內地奢侈品消費市場或將温和復甦。整體而言,中信證券預計2025年上半年行業利潤率將持續承壓,當前板塊缺乏估值修復的明確催化,短期仍對全球奢侈品行業及相關標的保持謹慎態度。
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