平安證券(香港)首次覆蓋偉仕佳傑:逐浪東南亞,估值坐看雲起
平安證券(香港)發研究報告,首次覆蓋偉仕佳傑(856.HK),給予"強烈推薦"評級,目標價9.16港元。
穿越週期穩健增長的IT分銷龍頭。偉仕佳傑是亞太地區領先的科技產品解決方案及IT服務平臺。公司作爲IT分銷商處於行業中遊,通過對接上遊品牌商與下遊渠道商,構建IT產品通往終端客戶的核心通路。由於頭部分銷商擁有全域終端客戶的覆蓋能力,使得品牌商僅需直接與分銷商對接便可以低成本接觸到廣泛的客戶,大幅降低了庫存管理、銷售團隊擴張、市場需求匹配及售後運維等環節成本,奠定其在產業鏈中的關鍵地位。分銷行業因天然低毛利率屬性,對資金週轉效率與精細化運營能力要求嚴苛,形成較高準入門檻,新晉者與中小企業難以快速突破。行業規模效應顯著,頭部企業通過規模化運營構築強競爭壁壘,強者恆強格局日益凸顯。公司目前已與超300家世界500強品牌商建立深度合作,覆蓋超5萬個銷售渠道,龍頭競爭優勢顯著。回顧過往業績,公司運營管理出色,財務指標穩健。
東南亞市場全速啓動增長引擎,釋放亞太地區最強發展動能。隨着數字化需求激增、雲服務擴張、AI等技術驅動東南亞數據中心市場呈爆發式增長。公司精準捕捉東南亞發展機會,在分銷渠道覆蓋方面,除了中國地區以外,還在新加坡、印尼、菲律賓、馬來西亞、泰國、緬甸、柬埔寨及老撾8個東南亞國家積極擴張。從業績來看,公司近6年來自東南亞的收入及利潤屢創新高,利潤現已突破5億港元,東南亞收入佔比持續提升。此外,公司通過深度賦能華爲、小米、阿里巴巴等國產品牌實現出海突破,助力其東南亞市場份額持續提升。
雲計算蓬勃增長,估值提升潛力凸顯。公司已與阿里雲、華爲雲、AWS等頭部雲廠商建立深度合作,未來將可受益於整體雲計算行業的高速發展。同時,作爲中國最大的雲服務商之一,公司在雲服務市場佔有領先地位,旗下雲星聚焦AI領域持續提升盈利能力。我們對比同屬IT產品分銷領先企業的神州數碼,雖然公司整體收入規模尚不及同業,但淨利潤已趕超神州數碼,且盈利能力極具優勢。估值方面,公司大幅低於同業,我們認爲未來隨着公司雲計算業務的高速發展,潛在估值提升空間巨大。
盈利預測及估值:首次覆蓋給予"強烈推薦"評級,目標價9.16港元。我們預計公司2025年/2026年/2027年收入將增長至996.5億/1,110.9億/1,229.6億港元,同期淨利潤將增長至11.6億/13億/15億港元。綜上所述,我們給予公司9.16港元的目標價,對應11.4倍/10.1倍的25E/26E市盈率,目標價相對現價仍有46.6%升幅,首次覆蓋給予"強烈推薦"評級。
風險提示:宏觀經濟風險;市場競爭風險;海外擴長不及預期;雲計算業務發展不及預期
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