《大行》匯豐:香港將成為內地家庭通往全球或區域投資門戶
匯豐環球研究發表報告,指中國內地家庭持有高達160萬億人民幣(22萬億美元)現金,預計其中一部分資產,即估計約50萬億人民幣(6.5萬億美元),可能轉向了投資股市,這也幫助解釋自今年初以來,通過港股通南向流入香港的創紀錄流量。
報告指出,中國內地家庭現時持有的160萬億人民幣(22萬億美元)現金,主要存於銀行定期存款,相當於英國和法國住房總價值的總和。該行預計其中一部分資金將用於退休,但估計去年累積的約50萬億人民幣(6.5萬億美元)屬於「超額儲蓄」——超出退休所需金額的資金。
該行認為,上述50萬億人民幣資金可能開始流入股市,因為2024年股市僅佔中國家庭金融資產的10%,低於2021年的15%和2010年的20%。這是一個巨大的金額——相當於A股市場規模的一半。同時也幫助解釋,自今年初以來通過港股通南向流入香港的創紀錄流量,即相當於800億美元。以目前的速率,這一金額全年可能達到1,800億美元,相當於2024年流入美國股市外資的二分之一。這些資金大多流向高成長的互聯網和電動車企業,但也流向高股息股票。
自2024年第四季度,中國政府宣布將提高退休年齡,並在全國推出私人養老金計劃。該行認為,後續將有更多改革來解決覆蓋範圍和資金缺口問題。這可能導致非現金金融資產的戰略性重新配置,特別是目前配置不足的私人養老金、保險產品和股票。
該行指,中國內地家庭對購買香港股票的熱情意味著,內地的低利率正在降低香港股市的折現率。也幫助支撐了香港股市,並解釋了為何今年至今,中國內地企業在香港通過首次公開募股(IPO)籌集的資金超過本地交易所。該行認為,香港將日益成為中國家庭通往全球或區域投資的門戶。
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