植耀輝:港股未擺脫上落市格局 Nvidia(NVDA.US)績優續看好
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,有看本欄之讀者,對半導體行業發展應該也有一定理解,皆因筆者經常也會在介紹一些行業資訊。不過由於涉及技術相當複雜,所以亦非三言兩語可以完全解釋得到。當中又以ASML生產之光刻機最為人感興趣。《CNBC》近日便走訪了ASML(ASML.US)位於加州之生產基地,除了有公司高管訪問外,亦簡單介紹光刻機之操作原理以及生產HIGH-NA EUV整部機器之難度,有興趣之朋友不妨上網觀看有關訪問。而更特別的是部分媒體將該視頻利用AI技術將訪問內容變成全廣東話版本,相關配音與受訪者之口型更相當一致,難怪有看過該片段之朋友表示,相比光刻機之「黑科技」,AI配音似乎更「得人驚」。
至於港股方面,雖然特朗普關稅大招被法院禁止令港股及A股昨日齊造好,不過截至昨日(29日)為止,恆指亦只是維持窄幅上落(23,167至23,571點),意味走勢未見突破,何況對於後市去向現時有多一重考量,就是A股表現。A股昨日中止五連跌,不過年初至今上綜指及深成指表現相對港股其實頗落後,前者僅累升0.35%,後者回報則為負2.8%。一日A股未能打破悶局,恆指恐怕亦只會繼續於現水現,亦即23,000至24,000點上落。
最後當然要談談Nvidia(NVDA.US)首財季業績表現。該公司再次不負眾望交出亮麗成績表,季度收入按年增加69%至440.6億美元,當中涵蓋AI芯片及相關硬件之數據中心部門收入增幅更達到73%。有關其他細項因篇幅所限不贅,反而想從今次業績中分享一些對行業以至Nvidia未來發展之看法。先是年初時Deepseek的出現一度令投資者擔心算力需求會大幅減少,不過經過今次季績,相關憂慮應該可以完全剔除,亦證明當日筆者「沒有人會嫌算力多」的看法成立,未來在主權AI及機械人產業的帶動下,有望繼續成為Nvidia增長催化劑;其次則是無所可避免的政策風險。事實上,若不是H20芯片被禁止售予中國,Nvidia上季以至本季展望將更有驚喜,而特朗普政府未來會否有更多管控機會亦相當高。即使如此,由於現時AI發展空間仍未見盡頭,意味其發展仍充滿想像空間,因此Nvidia及TSM(TSM.US)將繼續是筆者美股之核心持股。
(筆者持有Nvidia及台積電股份)~
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