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《大行》匯豐研究:HIBOR低企較爲利好港交所(00388.HK) 上調目標價至438元
匯豐研究發表報告指,雖然貸款需求低迷,但受惠於首次公開招股(IPO)集資活動及整體股市表現向好,該行預期香港銀行5月存款增長將保持正數,尤其看好香港交易所(00388.HK)、中銀香港(02388.HK)及東亞銀行(00023.HK)。 該行認爲,儘管貸款需求低迷,但據香港金管局最新貨幣統計數據,香港銀行業存款於4月按月增長0.6%,年初至今增長達4.1%。該行預期香港銀行業5月存款增長將保持正數,主要受惠於IPO集資活動及整體股市表現向好。 針對港元銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)下降及其帶來的影響,該行指出,1個月HIBOR現貨利率跌至約0.6%,5月平均爲1.72%,遠低於1至4月平均的3.82%。較低的港元利率可能對銀行收入造成顯着影響。根據敏感性分析,該行估計HIBOR下降100個基點可能使中銀香港的盈利減少10%。利率下降可能引導更多存款轉向投資,這將利好港交所及銀行的財富管理業務。 報告又指,較低的HIBOR對港交所的利好大於銀行;將港交所2025至27年每股盈利預測分別上調0.2%、2%及3.3%,並將目標價從413元上調至438元,以反映更高的日均成交額預測及上市相關收入,部分被投資收入減少所抵銷。該行亦看好中銀香港及東亞銀行,全部予以「買入」評級,因其高資本比率可能帶來資本回報的增長潛力。 股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元) 中銀香港(02388.HK) | 買入 | 38.1元 東亞銀行(00023.HK) | 買入 | 12.8元 港交所(00388.HK) | 買入 | 413元 -> 438元
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