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海外再起變數,A股遭遇“端午劫”

今日A股市場呈現出震盪調整的格局,各大指數集體下跌。截止收盤,上證指數報3347.49點,下跌0.47%;深證成指報10040.63點,下跌0.85%;創業板指報1993.19點,跌幅0.96%。從整體市場來看,個股呈現普跌態勢,上漲個股僅1159只,而下跌個股數量超4100只。市場成交量11392億,相對昨天縮量462億。

一、市場板塊分析

1、創新藥板塊:創新藥板塊今日強勢爆發,成爲市場中的亮點。板塊內多股漲停,睿智醫藥、華納藥廠盤中“20cm”漲停,另有10多股盤中漲停或漲幅超過10%。

5月29日,國家藥品監督管理局集中發佈批準(含附條件批準)11款創新藥上市,其中5款來自科創板創新藥企。這一消息極大地提振了創新藥板塊的市場信心。同時,在2025 ASCO摘要中,中國創新藥入選數量再創新高,印證中國創新藥企研發競爭力實現跨越式突破,國際影響力日漸提高。ASCO大會召開在即(5月30日至6月3日),重磅數據即將揭曉,創新藥板塊有望迎來關注熱潮,市場情緒與板塊估值將進入正向修復通道。

2、養殖業板塊:養殖業板塊早盤逆勢走強,豬肉、雞肉概念股集體拉昇。其中豬肉概念板塊以2.39%的漲幅領漲當日所有概念板塊。

養殖業板塊異動與美國關稅政策反覆有關,養殖業作爲與民生息息相關的板塊,往往會受到政策重點扶持,在業績上更具韌性,被市場視爲避險的良好選擇。同時,進口農產品是我國採取關稅反制措施的重要抓手,養殖業飼料所需的大豆、玉米等依賴美國出口,若反制措施導致養殖成本上行,豬肉價格上漲,有助於行業整體景氣度的提高。

二、市場調整原因分析

1、外部因素影響:隔夜美股市場雖然三大指數整體收高,但市場仍存在一定的不確定性。美國Q1 GDP修正爲環比萎縮0.2%,消費支出疲軟,美元指數跳水。儘管美股科技股如英偉達因Q1營收超預期股價上漲,帶動AI產業鏈個股活躍,但經濟數據的疲軟強化了降息預期,這對於全球資本市場的資金流向和風險偏好都產生了一定的影響。

此外,美國國際貿易法院裁定特朗普政府加徵全球關稅越權,並暫停實施相關措施,雖然特朗普已提出上訴,但該裁決仍然給全球貿易鏈和市場預期帶來了變數,影響了投資者的風險偏好。

2、內部板塊輪動:從A股內部來看,近期市場處於板塊快速輪動階段。前期熱門的科技板塊如AI算力、機器人等在連續上漲後,積累了較多的獲利盤。部分AI、半導體龍頭估值已處於高位,PE超百倍,而業績兌現仍需時間。隨着市場的發展,資金開始尋求新的價值窪地和防禦性板塊。昨日盤面已現端倪,高位AI算力、機器人等板塊衝高回落,而今日創新藥、養殖業等防禦性板塊逆勢上漲,顯示出資金正在進行高低切換,市場風格面臨調整。

3、臨近假期因素:端午小長假前最後一個交易日,市場通常會呈現出一定的縮量震盪特徵。融資盤與遊資傾向於持幣過節,以規避假期期間可能出現的不確定性風險。儘管今年在政策窗口期和資金調倉需求等因素影響下,市場活躍度有所不同,但節前效應仍然在一定程度上影響了市場的做多熱情,使得資金更加謹慎,對指數上行形成一定壓力。

總體而言,今日A股市場的調整是內外部多種因素共同作用的結果。6月是機構調整倉位的月份,後續可以多關注股價處於“低位”且未來幾個季度業績向好的板塊和個股。

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注意:文中所提個股和題材板塊不構成任何推薦,僅爲覆盤和學習交流所用,投資決策需建立在自我獨立理性思考和專業研判之上,市場有風險,投資需謹慎。

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