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《大行》匯豐研究上調中銀香港(02388.HK)目標價至38.1港元 維持「買入」評級
阿思達克 05-29 11:14
匯豐環球研究發表報告,指香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)下行,可能會對中銀香港(02388.HK)淨利息收入產生短期但顯著的影響。由今年首四個月一個月HIBOR平均的3.82%,至5月27日降至0.6%,該行料HIBOR每下降100個基點,可能使中銀香港的淨息差收窄13個基點,若這種下降持續一年,基於2024年形式上的盈利影響估算約為10%,考慮到貸款通常在1個月內重新定價,存款則在3至6個月內重新定價,淨息差可能在今年6月或7月觸底,導致2025年第三季度收入面臨重大壓力,但料2025年第四季度回升。 匯豐環球研究指,基於上述原因,下調中銀香港2025、2026、2027年盈利預測各5.1%、0.4%、1.4%,主要因淨息差預估下調,但考慮額外資本回報潛力及權益成本小幅下降,決定將目標價從36.1元上調至38.1元,維持「買入」評級。 該行認為,較低的HIBOR,能反映市場整體資金流入及對香港銀行體系和資本市場的信心。長期來看,中銀香港有望透過加快資產增長、手續費收入增長以及資產品質擔憂的降低,從此類流動性流入中受益。此外,中銀的一級核心資本充足比率高達23%,為其中長期進行股份回購或額外股息分派提供強勁潛力。 今早最新一個月香港銀行同業拆息0.58857厘,按匯豐環球研究對中銀香港的盈利受HIBOR下滑的敏感性分析,若HIBOR每下降300個基點(對比今年首四個月一個月HIBOR平均的3.82%),若下降持續一個月及三個月,基於中銀2024年形式上的盈利影響估算各約為2.5%及7.5%。
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