《大行》花旗:Nvidia(NVDA.US)季績勝預期 評級「買入」
花旗發表報告,指全球AI晶片巨擘Nvidia(NVDA.US)受強勁的人工智能需求推動,截至4月27日止首財季業績優於預期,將Nvidia目標價定為150美元,評級「買入」。
該行表示,Nvidia首財季的收入、Non-GAAP每股盈利(換除股票激勵)分別錄441億美元及0.96美元(排除H20相關費用及稅務影響,如計入則為0.81美元),高於該行預測分別436億美元及0.94美元(排除費用)及市場預測分別433億美元及0.74美元(計及開支)。
花旗續指,因中國對H20產品的限制,公司在首財季產生45億美元的H20過剩庫存及採購義務開支,低於公司最初預算的55億美元。Nvidia指引7月底止次財季收入為450億美元(中位值),高於該行預測的442億美元,惟低於市場預期的459億美元,此展望反映近期出口管制導致H20收入損失約80億美元。
花旗認為,Nvidia達成目標價的下行風險包括:(1)若Nvidia在遊戲市場份額流失,競爭加劇可能導致股價下跌;(2)新平台採用速度慢於預期,或拖累數據中心及遊戲業務銷售;*3)汽車及數據中心市場的業績波動可能加劇股價及估值倍數的不穩定性;(4)加密貨幣挖礦活動對遊戲業務銷售的潛在影響。
而投資者將關注以下方面:(1)美國出口管制「擴散規則」有否可能逆轉及中東地區的AI需求潛力;(2)Hopper架構向Blackwell的技術過渡進度,以及GB200/GB300服務器機架的供應情況;(3)毛利率走勢;(4)對中國市場限制的最新看法。
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