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《大行》野村降美團(03690.HK)目標價至176元維持「買入」 料激烈競爭不太可能持續超過一年
野村發表報告指,美團-W(03690.HK)(MPNGY.US)今年首季收入及非通用會計準則經營利潤分別按年升18%及62%,超出市場預期。但集團表示,次季起將提高食品配送和即時購物上的競爭支出,可能顯著影響該業務的收入和利潤。集團又指,提高競爭的決定是因為阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)加入競爭。 該行預測,食品配送的收入增長將由首季的15%放緩至次季的6.3%,因為部分收入將被投資抵消,料食品配送的單位經濟於次季按年跌34%至1.24元人民幣,因補貼增加,並同時刺激交易量按年增10%,不過該行料將拖累平均訂單價值(AOV)下跌2%。目標價由200港元降至176港元,維持「買入」評級。 野村認為雖然目前很難預測這一波競爭的演變方向,但高強度激烈競爭不太可能持續超過一年,競爭很大程度上取決於京東是否願意繼續維持如此高的現金消耗速度。該行料阿里巴巴和美團的舉措更多是採取防禦性的,主要是回應京東(09618.HK)自4月以來在該領域的積極投資。對京東而言,該行相信它渴望在生鮮電商和即時零售領域成為一個有影響力的參與者。但正如該行在本月中報告所作出的討論,京東的野心將受到可用資源的限制。該行估計,京東新業務的季度虧損正在吞噬其電子商務業務利潤的大約四分之一。
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